Asia-Pacific counted 503 million people aged 65 and over in 2024, representing 10.5% of its total population. Over thirty-four years, between 1990 and 2024, this number nearly tripled, rising from 168 million to 503 million. This demographic transformation makes Asia the world’s laboratory for accelerated aging.
The region is transitioning from 6% of people aged 65 and over in 2000 to approximately 12% today, with projections of 18% by 2050. An unprecedented pace of transition that forces innovation to maintain economic growth.
The Fastest Demographic Transition in History
While France and Sweden took respectively 115 and 85 years to transition from an aging society (7 to 14% of the population aged 60 and over) to an aged society (14 to 21%), the same transition in China, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam is projected to take only 19 to 25 years.
In 1990, only 9.2% of the Asian population (7 countries) lived in aging societies. In 2024, 75.8% of the population (22 countries) finds itself in aging societies, 6.4% (7 countries) in aged societies, and 2.7% (2 countries) in super-aged societies. Projections for 2050 show 44.5% (24 countries) in aging societies, 10.0% (11 countries) in aged societies, and 36.7% (19 countries) in super-aged societies.
By 2050, approximately 37% of Japan’s population and nearly 40% of South Korea’s population are projected to be aged 65 and over, while China’s share could reach approximately 31%. These figures reveal the magnitude of an unprecedented economic challenge.
Robotization as a Response to Labor Shortages
South Korea currently possesses the highest robotics density in the world, with approximately 1,012 industrial robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers. China has 470 and Japan 419, all significantly above the global average of 162. China, South Korea, and Japan have expanded their investments in robotics, AI systems, and advanced manufacturing technologies to maintain economic productivity.
South Korea plans to distribute 5,000 elderly care robots by 2023. AI companion robots Hyodol for seniors were launched in 2018, with over 5,400 units provided to approximately 115 local governments and 250 institutions across the country.
Japan launched national projects to establish regulatory and normative foundations for large-scale implementation of care robots, notably the “Project for the Practical Use of Personal Care Robots” (2009-13, $60 million) and the “Project for the Development and Promotion of the Introduction of Robotic Care Devices” (2013-17, $125 million). The Robotic Revolution Initiative announced in 2015 promised to “spread the use of robotics from large factories to all corners of our economy and society”.
This technological approach reveals a distinctive Asian strategy: replacing declining labor through automation rather than through massive immigration, as the economics of life stages explores—a discipline studying these transitions.
Social Innovation Complements Technological Response
China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and Ministry of Civil Affairs are deploying robots in homes, community centers, and institutions to assist with disabilities, cognitive problems, and daily tasks. Over the next three years, China plans to test at least 200 robots and establish industry standards. With China’s population aged 60 and over already exceeding 300 million and projected to exceed 400 million by 2035, the program is designed to prepare China’s rapidly aging society.
Singapore has adopted this strategy, with the retirement age gradually increasing from 55 years in 1988 to 63 years in 2025 and the introduction of a reemployment framework. Flexible work arrangements, part-time opportunities, and phased retirement options allow older workers to remain in the workforce longer.
By expanding the potential workforce to meet employers’ immediate needs and encouraging experienced workers to return to work, the system should improve overall productivity and provide economic benefits through increased employment and consumer spending. Regional governments across China actively promote older workforce participation, notably Shanghai’s government, which recently proposed measures to strengthen the reemployment training system.
Controlled Immigration as Demographic Adjustment
The number of foreign workers in Japan has quadrupled from less than half a million in 2008 to 2.3 million in 2024. Japan announced major improvements to its immigration framework for low to mid-skilled workers in 2024.
The government plans to replace the TITP with the new Employment for Skills Development (ESD) Program beginning in 2027. Low-skilled foreign workers will be admitted to the ESD program to undergo three years of skills development. At the end, they will be eligible to transition to long-term employment under the SSWS.
The plan presented to an expert panel would set a cap of 805,700 workers for the Specialized Skilled Worker Type 1 (SSW1) program. The JICA Ogata Research Institute estimated in a 2024 report that Japan will lack 770,000 workers out of the 4.19 million required by 2030.
This selective immigration strategy contrasts with the broader European approach to openness, revealing a specific Asian pathway for demographic management.
The Economic Costs of Transition
By 2050, demographic changes could reduce China’s growth rate by as much as 1.64 percentage points in the medium scenario and 2.13 percentage points in the low scenario. Demographic changes would reduce annual GDP and GDP per capita growth by 1.09 and 0.86 percentage points respectively from 2021 to 2070. In the low scenario, deceleration is even greater, at 1.40 and 1.05% respectively.
The effect of population aging will dominate, reducing the average annual economic growth rate by 0.55 percentage points below its potential. An increase in government consumption helps growth slightly, but an increase in labor income tax and declining productivity growth have major effects on growth.
The aging of Asian populations causes contraction of Asian labor forces. This is a problem that slows GDP growth because fewer workers are available to stimulate economic activity and productivity. These projections quantify the urgency of technological and social innovation.
A Closing Window of Opportunity
Technology and innovation play key roles in helping address the challenges posed by declining and aging workforces. All contribute to stimulating labor force participation and productivity.
The authors apply a model developed by Acemoglu (2010) to demonstrate that the scarcity of young and middle-aged workers could substantially increase the adoption of robots and other automation technologies, potentially improving aggregate production despite reduced labor input.
Asia is testing an unprecedented equation: maintaining economic growth with an aging population through technological innovation and optimization of existing human resources. This large-scale experimentation could define the development model of the twenty-first century, between advanced automation and selective immigration. The stakes transcend economics: it is about proving that a society can prosper while aging, as the glass ceiling of traditional societal representations explores.
The results of this Asian experiment will determine whether humanity can transform the demographic challenge into a competitive advantage through innovation, or whether aging imposes structural limits on modern economic growth.
Sources
- Population Ageing - Demographic Changes in Asia and the Pacific
- Census Bureau Releases New Report on Aging in Asia
- Population and Development Data - Demographic Changes in Asia and the Pacific
- AI and robotics could offset impact of aging populations in Asia - Digital Watch Observatory
- Strengthening Japan’s Workforce: The Role of Foreign Labor in Addressing Demographic Challenges - AMRO
- Géoconfluences - Vieillissement