161 gigawatts of new coal power plant projects proposed in 2025: a historical record. Yet fifteen months earlier, the Chinese government promised to “strictly control the consumption of fossil fuels” in a document published symbolically on Earth Day. This contradiction illustrates the complexity of energy policy in the world’s largest emitter, where green transition and energy security clash at the heart of a dual-track strategy.
For the first time, China now possesses more clean electricity production capacity than fossil fuel capacity, reaching 52% of the total in February 2026, thanks to a decade of massive solar and wind installations. But at the same time, 78 GW of new coal capacity was put into service in 2025, the highest annual level in ten years. This paradox reveals an energy strategy where renewables are exploding without eliminating coal dependence.
161 GW of Coal: A Rush Before Restrictions
The high rate of new proposals likely reflects “a rush by coal industry actors” to develop projects before anticipated tightening of climate policy over the next five years. By late 2025, 291 GW of coal capacity remained in the Chinese pipeline, equivalent to 23% of the current operating fleet.
This acceleration contrasts with the evolution of Chinese emissions. Emissions from the electricity sector fell by 1.5% over 2025, with coal usage down 1.7%. Coal-powered electricity production dropped 1.6% in China in 2025, while non-fossil sources grew rapidly enough to cover the increase in electricity consumption.
Rising capacity and stable consumption mean that the utilization rate of coal power plants is falling. This rate was around 70% two decades ago, but is now only 40%. Utilization peaked at 54% over the twelve months through February 2024 and fell to 51% over the twelve months through September 2025. If all new projects materialize and coal production remains stagnant, utilization would drop to 43%.
Chinese Emissions Stagnant for Twenty Months
China’s CO2 emissions remained unchanged from the previous year in the third quarter of 2025, extending a flat or declining trend that began in March 2024. These figures imply that China’s carbon intensity fell by 4.7% in 2025 and by 12% during the 2020-2025 period.
This stabilization is explained by several factors. Solar production increased by 43% over the year, wind by 14%, and nuclear by 8%, contributing to a 1.9% drop in coal production. Energy storage capacity grew by a record 75 GW, well above the 55 GW increase in peak demand. This means that growth in storage capacity and clean electricity production exceeded increases in peak and total electricity demand, respectively.
The explosion of electric vehicles also contributes to this trend. The rapid adoption of electric vehicles caused transport emissions to fall by 5% over the year, with Chinese transport oil consumption declining since April 2024.
Coal as Energy Insurance Despite the Green Revolution
China possesses the world’s largest fleet of coal power plants and accounts for 71% of global developing coal capacity, according to Global Energy Monitor. This expansion is explained by persistent energy security concerns.
China continues to rely on coal for electricity production to avoid blackouts and industrial shutdowns during peak demand periods and times of declining hydroelectricity when rainfall is scarce. This situation stems in part from the legacy of the authorization wave that began in 2022 in response to electricity shortages the previous year, largely due to insufficient system flexibility.
In the electricity sector, government officials have indicated that coal should shift from a major role in electricity supply to supporting “flexibility” operations, requiring coal power plants to modulate their load levels and respond quickly to demand changes. However, coal authorizations “continue to reflect expectations of high operating hours,” rather than flexible operations.
The Chinese Exception in the Global Energy Transition
This dual-track strategy distinguishes China from the rest of the world. Approximately two-thirds of coal capacity proposed in China since 2014 has either been put into service or remains in the pipeline. This is “the inverse of what we observe outside China, where approximately two-thirds of proposed coal capacity never reaches construction.”
China, the largest market, accounted for 800 billion dollars out of 2.3 trillion dollars in energy transition investments in 2025, according to a BloombergNEF report. Furthermore, “China continues to represent a clear majority of global investments in supply chains, and BNEF expects this situation to continue for at least the next three years.”
This dominant position raises questions about the sincerity of Chinese climate commitments. The new document acknowledges the need to “strictly control the consumption of fossil fuels,” in significantly stronger language than the 15th five-year plan published after the two sessions meeting in March. The five-year plan committed only to “promoting the peak” of coal and oil usage.
A Decisive Turning Point for Global Emissions
Electricity production from these two countries generated over 90% of the increase in global CO2 emissions from all sources between 2015-2024, with 78% from China and 16% from India, making their electricity sectors key to reaching the peak of global emissions. The simultaneous decline of coal in China and India therefore marks a historic moment.
The Climate Action Tracker projects that 2025 could mark the peak of China’s CO2 emissions if the current momentum of the clean energy transition continues. Strong growth in clean energy contributed to a 1% decline in CO2 emissions over the year in the first half of 2025, with renewables representing nearly 40% of China’s total electricity production.
The Chinese paradox reveals inherent tensions in any massive energy transition: between supply security and climate objectives, between economic growth and decarbonization. Without firm commitment and clear policy signals to guide this change, clean energy growth will increasingly hit system constraints. The greatest risk is the opportunity cost: each idle coal power plant represents capital not invested in the truly flexible and clean electricity system that China could lead the world in building.
Sources
- Global Energy Monitor - Built to peak: Coal power expansion runs out of room in China
- Carbon Brief - ‘Rush’ for new coal in China hits record high in 2025 as climate deadline looms
- Carbon Brief - Q&A: China’s leadership calls for ‘strict control’ of fossil fuels
- Carbon Brief - Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions have now been ‘flat or falling’ for 21 months
- Carbon Brief - Analysis: Coal power drops in China and India for first time in 52 years after clean-energy records