61% of global GDP converges on Shenzhen in November 2026 for the 33rd APEC economic leaders’ meeting. According to the APEC Policy Support Unit, APEC economies represent 61% of global nominal GDP and 46% of global trade in 2024. China is using its presidency of this forum of 21 economies to promote its “Asia-Pacific community” model in the face of American protectionist policies.
China has defined three priorities for APEC 2026—openness, innovation, cooperation—as means to translate this vision into concrete actions. This strategy aims to counter geoeconomic fragmentation in a region that generates nearly half of global trade, but underlying geopolitical tensions limit possible advances.
China Redefines the Regional Economic Agenda
China, host of APEC 2026, has introduced its theme “Building an Asia-Pacific Community for Shared Prosperity.” Ma Zhaoxu emphasized that the Asia-Pacific community is not merely an aspiration but also a set of practical actions.
The scope of the economic challenge justifies this mobilization. Economic growth in the APEC region is expected to moderate to 2.6% and 2.7% in 2025 and 2026, a sharp decline from the 3.6% growth recorded in 2024. This downward revision reveals the persistent impact of political uncertainty on the regional economy.
Cooperation remains fundamental to Asia-Pacific prosperity. Ma underscored APEC’s role as the region’s premier forum for economic cooperation and called for deeper coordination in fiscal policy, food security, energy, SMEs, transportation, tourism, human resources, and public health.
The Three Pillars of China’s Strategy
Economic Openness: Openness has long been the vital force of the region as average tariffs in APEC have fallen from 17% to 5%. With 2026 marking the 20th anniversary of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area (FTAAP), Beijing is calling for continued support of the multilateral trading system.
Technological Innovation: On innovation, Ma emphasized rapid technological change, particularly in artificial intelligence, as a driver of new growth levers. He called on APEC to deepen collaboration on cutting-edge technologies, develop digital public services, and promote interoperability of standards.
Strengthened Cooperation: The Committee on Trade and Investment will discuss its priorities for 2026, including cooperation to support the multilateral trading system, trade facilitation, and regional economic integration. Economies aim to strengthen consensus on the spirit of open regionalism and advance the FTAAP process.
Beijing Capitalizes on American Leadership Vacuums
Trump’s decision to avoid APEC fits his well-known disdain for large traditional multilateral forums customarily used to address global problems. But his blunt rejection of APEC risks aggravating America’s reputation in a forum representing nearly 40% of the world’s population and more than half of global merchandise trade.
This absence creates a void that Beijing is methodically filling. Beijing has sought to occupy the dominant rhetorical position, presenting itself as a defender of openness and multilateralism. Xi’s discourse at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum presents China as a champion of free trade and inclusive development, opposing “protectionism, unilateralism, and intimidation.”
The effectiveness of this strategy is measured in concrete results. For Asia-Pacific states, the Chinese market is becoming increasingly more accessible than the American market. China’s economic engagement with ASEAN has borne fruit. In 2002, China co-founded the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area, exponentially multiplying the volume of trade between China and Southeast Asia. Since its launch, Chinese exports to ASEAN have increased 12-fold, and its imports from ASEAN have increased 9-fold.
Shenzhen, Showcase of China’s Economic Miracle
Shenzhen provides an appropriate setting for this meeting. One of China’s first special economic zones and now the country’s premier commercial hub, the city has grown from a GDP of merely 270 million yuan in 1980 to 3.68 trillion yuan in 2024, with total trade reaching approximately 4.5 trillion yuan last year.
This symbolic choice is not arbitrary. Xi noted that Shenzhen, located on the Pacific coast, has developed from a backward small fishing village into a modern international metropolis over recent decades. He lauded the city’s rise as a miracle in the history of world development created by the Chinese people, and an important window onto China’s unwavering pursuit of a strategy of mutually beneficial openness.
The city embodies the Chinese vision of state-guided economic development open to international investment, contrasting with the Western neoliberal model.
Structural Limitations of the Chinese Project
Despite the charm offensive, underlying geopolitical tensions limit the scope of China’s initiative. The report draws attention to growing structural challenges. “From tariff increases and retaliatory measures to suspensions of trade facilitation procedures and the proliferation of non-tariff barriers, we are witnessing an environment that is not conducive to trade.”
APEC economies are experiencing a more pronounced growth deterioration than the rest of the world. Regional GDP growth is expected to slow significantly to 2.6-2.7% in 2025-2026, compared to 3.6% in 2024. These projections are notably lower than the 3.1-3.3% forecasts from APEC’s Regional Trends Analysis from March 2025, underscoring how rising trade tensions and increased uncertainty are undermining recovery.
Fiscal challenges are accumulating. General government gross debt in APEC is expected to exceed 110% of GDP by 2026, a significant increase from previous forecasts. This reflects persistent pandemic-related spending, slower revenue recovery, and increased spending to support growth and social services as populations age.
A Time-Limited Window of Opportunity
This perspective is shared by WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonkjo-Iweala. She maintains that WTO analysis reveals that U.S.-China trade escalation could lead to an 80% reduction in their bilateral merchandise trade and risk dividing the global economy into two separate blocs. If this occurs, the WTO estimates that real global GDP would be nearly 7% lower by 2040.
Facing this potential fragmentation, China is banking on APEC as a platform to legitimize its multilateral approach. The European Union and Asia-Pacific economic groupings should join forces to safeguard multilateralism and free trade. This is what the original ASEAN members are doing, voluntarily instilling multilateralism in their preferential tariffs by offering them to non-members on a most-favored-nation basis.
APEC 2026 represents for Beijing a strategic opportunity to redefine the regional economic order on its terms. But the success of this vision will depend on China’s ability to reconcile its geopolitical ambitions with the economic imperatives of an increasingly fragmented region. The economic leaders who will gather in Shenzhen in November 2026 will have to navigate between the allure of the Chinese market and American geopolitical pressures, in a context where 61% of global GDP seeks a balance between cooperation and sovereignty.
Sources: