The global economy is proving more resistant than expected to trade tensions
In January 2026, the IMF revised its forecasts upward to 3.3%, but in April 2026, it revised them downward to 3.1% due to the Iran-United States war. Nevertheless, this unexpected capacity for adaptation by businesses facing American tariff turbulence testifies to a remarkable resilience in the global economy.
The global economy is demonstrating remarkable resilience in the face of trade and customs disruptions, surpassing the International Monetary Fund’s initial anticipations. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, observes: “We are finding that global growth remains quite resilient” and “the global economy is recovering from the trade and customs disruptions of 2025 and is faring better than we had expected.”
The essentials
- Global growth was revised upward to 3.3% for 2026 in January, then adjusted downward to 3.1% in April due to the Iran-United States conflict
- Businesses have adapted to American tariffs by reorganizing their supply chains
- Investments in artificial intelligence are particularly supporting growth in the United States and China
- This volatility in forecasts illustrates the current geopolitical uncertainty
Businesses are reorganizing their supply chains
Entrepreneurial adaptation to American customs tariffs constitutes the primary factor in this economic resilience. Businesses have reorganized their supply chains, while China has redirected its exports toward markets other than the United States.
The United States has instituted a uniform tariff rate of 10% that now applies to a broad base of imported products, using Section 122 of the Trade Act rather than the IEEPA invalidated by the Supreme Court. Facing this new situation, exporting companies are adjusting their export strategies: analysis of cost structures and price adaptation, geographic diversification toward other markets, renegotiation of contractual clauses linked to customs duties.
The speed of adaptation is surprising economists. Experts emphasize that “diversifying one’s supply chain does not happen overnight” and that “finding alternative suppliers can be lengthy and complicated.” Nevertheless, European businesses already possess valuable experience in adapting to trade shocks thanks to lessons learned from Brexit or the pandemic, which accelerated the adoption of more flexible strategies.
Artificial intelligence is driving American growth
Artificial intelligence is playing a major role in the upward revision of American forecasts, with massive investments that “are pulling growth along” according to Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. Bank of America forecasts American growth of 2.4% by the end of 2026, above consensus, driven by business investments, fiscal measures, and recent interest rate cuts.
Global artificial intelligence investments reached $202.3 billion in 2025, representing 50% of all venture capital deployed worldwide. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are reportedly concentrating nearly $650 billion this year to expand their AI-dedicated infrastructure.
Artificial intelligence is fueling a new investment cycle that could develop further next year. Capital expenditures by the technology sector are said to have contributed approximately 50 basis points to American GDP growth in 2025, and could still contribute nearly an additional 100 basis points this year.
China maintains momentum despite tensions
Chinese growth is revised upward to 4.5% for 2026 (+0.3 percentage point), but shows signs of slowdown after two years at 5%, with a forecast of 4% for 2027. This performance also exceeds expectations with forecasts of 4.7% for 2026.
This upward revision takes into account a reduction of 10 percentage points in American tariffs on Chinese products for one year, as well as the continuation of Chinese export diversion. China is demonstrating its capacity to redirect its commercial flows to circumvent American tariff barriers, as illustrated by the ongoing recomposition of global economic geography.
Europe benefits from gradual recovery
European growth is expected to be slightly lower than in 2025, at 1.3% versus 1.4%, but the 2026 forecast is revised slightly upward compared to the initial October estimate (+0.1 percentage point).
Germany finally appears to be exiting several difficult years following the pandemic — only 0.25% growth in 2025 after two years of recession — to rise above 1% this year (1.1% expected, +0.2 percentage point). This acceleration is explained by “increased military spending and public investments, as well as the lagged effects of monetary policy easing.”
Spain is expected to be Europe’s most dynamic economy again, with anticipated growth of 2.3% (+0.3 percentage point). This European performance contrasts with the challenges artificial intelligence poses to the European labor market, where adaptation to new technologies is becoming crucial.
Risks of fragmentation persist
Despite this resilience, risks of deterioration dominate these outlooks. A prolongation or extension of conflicts, a worsening of geopolitical fragmentation, a reassessment of expectations regarding productivity gains induced by artificial intelligence, or a resurgence of trade tensions could significantly weaken growth.
Tariffs are only one factor among others in a changing global environment, but they remind us that logistical resilience is now a competitive advantage. Investing in supply chains that are robust, transparent, and agile is no longer an option, but a necessity.
The consensus among professional investors is that more than 90% of AI startups will fail despite massive capital flows, but the survivors will generate returns that will justify the risk at the portfolio level. This concentration of risk on artificial intelligence raises questions about the sustainability of current economic optimism.
The adaptation capacity demonstrated by businesses facing 2025’s turbulence testifies to a maturation of the global economy in the face of geopolitical shocks. It remains to be determined whether this resilience can persist in the face of deeper structural fragmentation and upcoming energy and technological challenges. Could artificial intelligence, today’s engine of growth, become tomorrow a factor of instability if productivity promises are slow to materialize?