The shift happened silently. For the first time since the invention of the steam engine, coal has lost its dominance in global electricity production. In 2025, renewable energies reached 33.8% of the global electricity mix compared to 33.0% for coal. This historic turning point masks an even more striking reality: China and India are seeing their fossil fuel emissions decline simultaneously for the first time.
Solar energy is driving this transformation. It covered 75% of the increase in global electricity demand in 2025, confirming its trajectory as the dominant technology. Yet this major turning point has sparked no official celebration, a symptom of a transition progressing more through economic pragmatism than political will.
The essentials
- Renewables reach 33.8% of global electricity production in 2025 versus 33.0% for coal
- Solar covers 75% of the increase in planetary electricity demand
- China and India simultaneously record their first decline in fossil fuel emissions
- This shift occurs without major political announcements or celebrations
Solar crushes everything in its path
The disappearance of coal above all reveals the dominance of photovoltaics. In 2025, solar represented 75% of the increase in global electricity demand, a percentage that testifies to its ability to absorb new needs. This performance surpasses the most optimistic predictions from ten years ago.
China is piloting this expansion. The country installed 230 gigawatts of solar capacity in 2025, equivalent to the entirety of France’s electrical grid added in a single year. This industrial pace explains the collapse in costs: solar megawatt-hours now trade at an average of $48 worldwide, compared to $180 fifteen years ago.
India confirms this trajectory with 65 gigawatts added in 2025. The country is betting on solar to electrify its rural areas while powering its industrial growth. Result: New Delhi reduced its coal imports by 12% in 2025 despite economic growth of 6.8%.
Europe and the United States are following this dynamic at less notable but steady rates. The European Union added 47 gigawatts in 2025, bringing its total capacity to 265 gigawatts. The United States has surpassed the 200 gigawatts installed mark, exceeding its federal objectives with two years to spare.
China reverses its emissions curve despite growth
The world’s largest emitter, China recorded its first decline in CO2 emissions in 2025 since 2020, with a decrease of 1.4%. This reduction occurred despite economic growth of 5.2%, illustrating the decoupling between economic activity and carbon footprint.
China’s electricity mix explains this performance. Coal still represents 56% of the country’s electricity production, but this figure was 68% in 2020. Renewables now account for 36% of China’s mix, with solar (14%) and wind (12%) leading the way. This proportion exceeds that of the United States (31%) and rivals the European Union (42%).
Beijing is also betting on nuclear power to accelerate decarbonization. Six new reactors entered service in 2025, bringing China’s nuclear capacity to 58 gigawatts. The government plans to double this capacity by 2030, with fourth-generation reactors currently undergoing testing.
This energy strategy is accompanied by active diplomacy. China positions itself as a global stabilizer amid Iranian energy chaos, exploiting geopolitical disruptions to strengthen its influence in energy markets.
India achieves green growth
New Delhi has achieved the feat of reducing its emissions by 0.8% in 2025 while maintaining growth of 6.8%. This performance places India as the first major emerging country to decouple growth and emissions in a sustainable manner.
Indian renewables are progressing at an industrial pace. The country installed 65 gigawatts of solar and wind capacity in 2025, exceeding its five-year targets three years ahead of schedule. This massive expansion is built on competitive costs: Indian solar produces electricity at $32 per megawatt-hour, the lowest rate in the world.
Rural electrification accompanies this dynamic. 47 million Indians gained access to electricity in 2025, primarily through solar microgrids. This strategy avoids heavy investments in transmission networks while guaranteeing access to energy.
India is testing the first “services first” model in history, an approach that prioritizes tertiary sector development. This economic strategy consumes less energy than classical industrialization, facilitating the energy transition.
Fossil fuels decline everywhere except Africa
Coal is losing ground on every continent. In the United States, 18 plants closed in 2025, bringing to 350 the number of units shut down since 2010. This massive closure is explained by the competitiveness of natural gas and renewables, not by regulatory constraints.
Europe is accelerating its coal exit. Germany closed its three remaining plants in December 2025, completing its scheduled phase-out. Poland, Europe’s last coal bastion, reduced its production by 15% in 2025 and plans a 40% decline by 2028.
Africa remains the only region where coal is still growing. South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya increased their coal consumption by 8% in 2025. This increase reflects the continent’s electrification needs, where 580 million people still lack access to electricity.
Yet even Africa is shifting toward solar for its new energy needs. The continent installed 23 gigawatts of renewable capacity in 2025, compared to 12 gigawatts of fossils. This proportion favors the emergence of an African energy model less carbon-intensive than that of Europe or Asia at equivalent development levels.
Natural gas benefits from the transition
While coal declines, natural gas maintains its position in the global mix at 22% of electricity production. This stability masks contrasting geographical shifts.
The United States consolidates its gas dominance. The country exported 142 billion cubic meters of liquefied gas in 2025, surpassing Qatar and Russia. This performance relies on shale deposit exploitation, which keeps American costs below $3 per million BTU.
Europe diversifies its supplies while reducing consumption. The European Union imported 30% less Russian gas compared to 2024, offset by American and Qatari deliveries. Simultaneously, European demand fell by 8% thanks to energy savings and renewable deployment.
Russia is redirecting its flows toward Asia. Moscow delivered 48 billion cubic meters to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline, 15% more than in 2024. This reorientation illustrates the geographical reshaping of global energy flows, amplified by the stakes of the summit redrawing the world order.
A shift without fanfare that raises questions
The surpassing of coal by renewables has occurred without major government celebration. No international summit was convened to mark this milestone, no leader claimed this victory. This discretion reveals the economic rather than political nature of this transition.
Costs explain this silent transformation. Solar and wind now produce electricity cheaper than coal in 95% of global markets. This competitiveness makes the transition inevitable, regardless of climate policies.
Yet this historic turning point is not sufficient to meet the 1.5°C warming objective. Renewables must reach 65% of the global electricity mix by 2030 to remain on this trajectory, according to the International Energy Agency. Current progress, while notable, remains insufficient given the climate emergency.
This dynamic also raises questions about energy geopolitics. Coal-exporting countries - Australia, Indonesia, Colombia - are seeing their markets contract rapidly. Conversely, nations controlling solar and wind value chains - China foremost - are strengthening their global energy influence.
The surpassing of coal by renewables marks the end of an energy era two centuries old. This shift occurs through economic pragmatism more than ecological conviction, confirming that the energy transition now advances through costs rather than constraints.
Sources
- Ember Global Electricity Review 2026
- International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2025
- Carbon Brief, Global Coal Plant Tracker 2025
- IRENA, Global Energy Transformation Report 2025