One million American apprentices for major disruption
940,000 active apprentices in 2024, a target of over one million by 2027. The United States is orchestrating a structural shift toward apprenticeship to address the challenges of AI and reindustrialization. This pragmatic approach can reduce the skills-job mismatch but raises questions about equity and the future of higher education.
In April 2025, the Trump administration set an ambitious goal: transforming the American vocational training system to support over one million apprentices per year. This political priority comes in the context of a massive shortage of skilled labor and a challenge to the “college for all” model.
The essentials
- 940,000 active apprentices in 2024, target of one million by 2027
- 2.1 million unfilled manufacturing jobs expected by 2030, potential cost of $1 trillion
- 65% dropout rate in apprenticeship programs
- Average salary of $80,000 for apprenticeship graduates in 2023
The American industrial bet against labor shortage
The United States is facing an unprecedented skills crisis. According to Deloitte and the Manufacturing Institute, 2.1 million manufacturing jobs could remain unfilled by 2030. The economic cost of these vacant positions could reach $1 trillion for 2030 alone.
This shortage hits technical trades particularly hard. In 2024, the United States already had 447,000 open positions in construction and 94,000 in durable goods. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects an annual shortage approaching 500,000 skilled workers over the next decade.
The phenomenon is explained by a convergence of factors. More than 2.7 million baby boomers are expected to retire by 2030, widening the skills gap further. At the same time, modern manufacturing careers suffer from an image deficit: many still perceive the industry as arduous manual labor, ignoring the high-tech and innovative nature of current production environments.
More than 22% of American manufacturing facilities operate below capacity, generating inefficiencies and rising costs. The economic impact of unfilled positions could exceed $1 trillion by 2030 due to lost production time.
Apprenticeship as bipartisan political response
Facing this urgency, apprenticeship enjoys rare political consensus. President Trump has embraced the apprenticeship approach as a solution to workforce needs, continuing a strategy of his predecessor Biden. The Biden administration had invested more than $440 million to expand the apprenticeship system’s capacity, supporting education and training for more than one million apprentices across the country.
Trump’s goal of one million active apprentices per year represents more than double current levels. Registered apprenticeship programs had approximately 940,000 participants in 2024. This level already represents an 80% increase compared to the previous decade.
This growth rests on sectoral diversification. While the most popular trades among 2024 apprentices remain concentrated in construction—electricians, plumbers, and carpenters—they now include information technology and healthcare. At Accenture, apprenticeships represent 20% of entry-level hires in the United States and Canada over the past three fiscal years.
Apprenticeship’s profitability challenges traditional university
Economic data supports apprenticeship. According to the Department of Labor, graduates of an apprenticeship program earned an average of $80,000 per year in 2023. This average salary exceeded that of holders of an associate degree.
Salary progression proves attractive. At the national level, registered apprentices earn an average starting salary of $20.67 per hour according to the latest DOL data. In high-cost states like California, New York, or Washington, the daily rate often exceeds $60 per hour, meaning a fifth-year apprentice can earn $45 per hour or more in training.
Employers find benefits too. They observe positive return on investment through better employee retention and their ability to fill critical workforce gaps. The typical employer experiences a 44.3% ROI on registered apprenticeship programs. Apprenticeship programs show an average job retention rate of 92% after apprentices complete the program.
This economic attractiveness contrasts with the university situation. While 65% of employers with apprenticeship programs report that over 70% of their apprentices complete their training, and nearly half report a success rate above 90%, recent data show that up to 40% of students do not complete university, with 24% dropping out before the end of their first year.
The challenge of massive dropout rates
Yet American apprenticeship suffers from a major problem: dropouts. Nearly half of all apprentices abandon their programs before completion. In 2021, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that overall apprenticeship success rates were below 35%.
Racial disparities worsen the phenomenon. While success rates are below 35% for all racial groups, they reach 33% for white apprentices but only 24% for black apprentices.
Of approximately 167,000 apprentices who started a registered apprenticeship program in 2017, only about 78,000, or 46.8%, completed the program within 6 years. This success rate is particularly low given the generous measurement timeframe, since most apprenticeship programs are designed to be completed in four years or less.
In 2023 alone, over 115,000 apprentices left their programs before completion. By 2030, with continued apprenticeship growth, this number could exceed 175,000—thousands of missed opportunities for learners and unfilled jobs for employers.
The causes of dropout remain multiple. Stakeholders point to various reasons for cancellation, such as lack of childcare or transportation, as well as financial difficulties and other sudden life events. These reasons are not exclusive to apprenticeship: many other post-secondary learners face similar challenges.
The limits of a fragmented system
The ambitious goal of one million apprentices runs up against institutional realities. The office lost its national director and several division heads, and staffing levels have declined by as much as 30%. The national office website lists only three people, all designated as “interim.” “The Department of Labor, and in particular the Office of Apprenticeship, are running on empty.”
Apprenticeship advocates worry that Trump’s proposed budget for fiscal year 2026 does not reflect the executive order’s vision. The proposal promises no significant new investment in apprenticeship and reduces workforce development spending overall. “The left hand doesn’t know what the right hand is doing.”
Budget cuts threaten the apprenticeship ecosystem. At least $30 million in congressionally appropriated funding last year was never spent and expired. The lack of funding for these groups has effectively cut off the pipeline. Some organizations are reporting “massive layoffs in apprenticeship,” with some even closing their doors.
This institutional weakening comes at a time when traditional education also faces questions. As our recent article on AI in higher education analyzes, the optimization of knowledge acquisition by artificial intelligence questions the added value of traditional university.
The equity challenge in an expanding system
The goal of one million apprentices raises crucial equity questions. Trump’s campaign against “DEI” could prove most destructive to his goal of expanding apprenticeship. While women and minorities are among those most likely to benefit from apprenticeships and interested in pursuing them, the Trump administration is committed to excluding them. As a result, “one million apprentices” will be unattainable if half the workforce is discouraged from participating.
Historical data already reveal marked imbalances. Women represent an average annual participation rate of 8.5%. In 2018 and 2019, just over 10% of apprentices were women. Unfortunately, women are underrepresented in skilled trade apprenticeships. In the 2010-2019 sample, only 3.5% of construction apprentices were women.
This underrepresentation contrasts with documented benefits. Through these efforts, the number of women in apprenticeships will soon exceed 100,000 for the first time. But Trump’s executive order “Ending Radical and Wasteful DEI Programs,” signed on his first day in office, led to the massive purge of websites, data, and programs perceived as promoting diversity. The Office of Apprenticeship saw the removal of affirmative action guidelines (“access denied,” the website now indicates), equal employment opportunity hiring regulations (“page under construction”), and even the 2024 report on National Apprenticeship Week.
The expansion of apprenticeship thus risks reproducing and amplifying existing inequalities rather than correcting them. In a context where global economic stakes are evolving rapidly, as evidenced by the transformations in South-South trade and economic independence strategies, this limitation on access to skilled training could weaken American competitiveness.
The goal of one million apprentices reveals tensions between industrial ambition and social equity. The United States has an economically viable model for rapidly training a skilled workforce. But their capacity to deploy it massively will depend on their willingness to address the structural causes of dropout and exclusion. Between economic pragmatism and social justice, American apprenticeship is still seeking its balance.
Sources: 1. U.S. Department of Education - National Community College Month