The South Trades with the South and Reshapes Global Value Chains
57% of exports from developing countries are now directed toward other Southern economies in 2024. This share has more than doubled since 2000, when South-South trade represented only 26% of global commerce. Over thirty years, developing countries have multiplied their mutual exchanges by more than tenfold, creating unprecedented commercial autonomy that is reshuffling the cards of the global economy.
This geographical mutation of commercial flows is transforming geopolitical power dynamics. Between 2007 and 2023, South-South trade more than doubled to reach $5.6 trillion, enabling developing countries to reduce their historical dependence on traditional partners. However, this new autonomy also reveals its fragility in the face of geopolitical and economic shocks.
57% of Southern Exports Remain in the South
By 2014, South-South trade already represented 57% of developing countries’ exports, or $9.3 trillion. This proportion has remained at this high level through 2024, demonstrating the solidity of this geographical reorientation of trade flows.
In 2024, developing countries exchanged $6.2 trillion among themselves, compared to $9.2 trillion for trade between developed countries. Exports between developed and developing countries totaled $8.7 trillion, showing that for advanced economies, trade with developing countries remains slightly less important than their internal exchanges.
Asia dominates this dynamic. In 2024, developing countries shipped the majority of their exports to the United States ($1.8 trillion), followed by China as the second destination ($1.3 trillion). In terms of imports, China occupies the first position with $1.9 trillion, ahead of the United States ($989 billion) and the Republic of Korea ($483 billion).
Regional Integration Progresses at Variable Speed
Regional integration remains highly uneven across geographical zones. In 2024, 67% of European exports remain in Europe, while in Asia this rate reaches 59%. Conversely, in Oceania, Latin America and the Caribbean, Africa, and North America, the main trading partners remain extra-regional.
Latin America illustrates this integration lag. Only 16% of Latin American trade is intra-regional, a proportion that stagnates. The share of intra-regional exports from Latin America has remained stable around 14-15% since 2000, while in the Caribbean it has even declined from 21% to 10%.
During the same period, Africa progressed from 12% to 19% of intra-regional trade, and Southeast Asia (with China and India) from 20% to 26%. Between 1980 and 2016, the share of Latin America’s intra-regional exports never exceeded 20%, compared to over 60% for the European Union. Intermediate products represent approximately 10% of Latin American intra-regional trade, compared to over 30% for ASEAN.
New Trade Agreements Restructure Value Chains
American withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) accelerated the emergence of Asia-centered agreements. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), signed in November 2020, brings together 15 countries representing 30% of the world’s population and 30% of global GDP, making it the largest trade bloc in history.
The RCEP reorients commercial and economic links toward regional relationships centered on East Asia, to the detriment of global connections. By establishing common rules of origin for all its members, the agreement facilitates the creation of a streamlined supply chain in Asia, where companies need only a single certificate of origin.
The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) follows a different logic. With 12 members representing 14.4% of global GDP ($15.8 trillion), it constitutes the fourth largest free trade area. The CPTPP aims for higher standards of liberalization, addressing intellectual property, labor standards, environmental protection, and state-owned enterprises.
The Resilience of South-South Trade Facing Shocks
Contrary to predictions, South-South trade resists geopolitical turbulence better than expected. In 2025, exchanges between developing countries progressed by approximately 8% over the last four quarters, demonstrating growing resilience.
In the second quarter of 2025, the growth of South-South trade was above average, confirming the strong trend over a 12-month period. However, when excluding East Asian economies, South-South trade contracted in the second quarter of 2025 and was comparatively weaker over the 12-month period.
This dependence on Asia reveals a vulnerability. East Asian exports recorded the strongest growth over the last four quarters (9%), with intra-regional trade increasing by 10%. South America also displays positive momentum with intra-regional trade up 3% in the third quarter and 7% over the last four quarters.
Paradoxically, while South-South trade holds steady, Africa’s intra-regional trade is contracting, reversing previous gains. This divergence underscores that the Southern hemisphere’s commercial empowerment remains fragile and geographically unbalanced.
The Structural Limits of the New Commercial Geography
South-South trade reveals its weaknesses during geopolitical tensions. In the third quarter of 2024, trade between developing countries fell 1% for the quarter, reversing previous trends. In 2024, trade among developed economies stagnated, with imports and exports stable for the year but down 2% in the final quarter.
This volatility contrasts with the steady growth of North-North exchanges. In the third quarter of 2024, developed economies led global trade growth, with imports up 3% for the quarter and exports progressing 2%.
Commercial infrastructure remains a major brake. The low levels of intra-regional trade in Latin America are closely linked to the region’s limited participation in robust regional value chains. While imported value added represents approximately 23% of the total value of the region’s exports, the share originating from the region itself is only slightly over 10%.
Geographic concentration poses an additional challenge. Vietnam is part of South-South trade strategies, as illustrated in Vietnamese policy on economic diversification that refuses to be reduced to a simple Plan B in the face of China. This approach shows how certain emerging countries navigate between regional autonomy and global diversification.
South-South trade is indeed transforming the global economic geography, but its sustainability will depend on its capacity to develop robust commercial infrastructure and to resist geopolitical shocks without falling back into historical dependence on advanced economies. The coming years will determine whether this empowerment constitutes a lasting mutation or a transitional phase of globalization.