300,000 collision avoidance maneuvers performed by Starlink satellites alone in 2025. This average of 40 maneuvers per satellite reveals the extent of orbital congestion and the de facto domination of a single private company over space near Earth.
The absence of binding regulation on the allocation of low Earth orbits transforms space into a territory of conquest where American and Chinese technology giants appropriate the best trajectories. This unregulated race redraws geopolitical balances and confronts the international community with an unprecedented governance challenge that transcends the simple opposition between established powers and emerging nations.
The Essentials
- 300,000 avoidance maneuvers performed by Starlink in 2025, revealing orbital congestion
- SpaceX controls 65% of active satellites with 7,500 Starlink units in low Earth orbit
- The International Telecommunication Union allocates orbital slots according to a first-come, first-served principle
- No international treaty limits the number of satellites a company can deploy
- SpaceX projects up to one million additional satellites while government and private projects announce the same order of magnitude
SpaceX Monopolizes Low Earth Orbit Through Saturation
The Starlink constellation currently comprises 7,500 active satellites among the 11,500 functional objects in low Earth orbit. SpaceX thus controls 65% of this spatial layer located between 160 and 2,000 kilometers in altitude, the most coveted for telecommunications and Earth observation.
This quantitative domination translates into operational control of space. The 300,000 avoidance maneuvers performed in 2025 by Starlink testify both to traffic density and the company’s technical capacity to manage these movements. Each Starlink satellite had to modify its trajectory 40 times on average, or more than once per week.
This frequency reveals a space already saturated where each new launch complicates navigation for all other objects. Amazon plans to deploy 3,236 satellites for its Kuiper project by 2029, OneWeb operates 634 satellites, while China develops several mega-constellations with over 100 satellites already in orbit despite technical difficulties.
International Legal Vacuum Favors Technology Giants
The International Telecommunication Union, a specialized UN agency, allocates orbital slots according to the “first-come, first-served” principle. This rule dating from 1973, designed for a few dozen government satellites, now governs the appropriation of space by private companies.
No international treaty limits the number of satellites an entity can deploy in low Earth orbit. The 1967 Outer Space Treaty prohibits national appropriation of celestial bodies but remains silent on orbital occupation. This legal gap allows companies with the capital and technology to de facto monopolize the most advantageous trajectories.
The European Space Agency (ESA) estimates that low Earth orbit can theoretically accommodate between 40,000 and 50,000 satellites before collision risks become unmanageable. The number of active satellites has increased from 2,000 ten years ago to nearly 20,000 today, and announced projects push this figure toward one million.
The United States and China are taking advantage of this window of opportunity to secure their privileged access. The American administration has approved the deployment of 42,000 additional Starlink satellites, while Beijing simultaneously develops the Guowang constellations (13,000 satellites) and Hongyan (320 satellites).
Avoidance Maneuvers Reveal an Unmanageable Space
Starlink’s 300,000 avoidance maneuvers illustrate the emergence of complex space traffic requiring permanent coordination. Each satellite must now integrate autonomous propulsion systems and navigation algorithms to avoid collisions.
This massive automation poses new risks. In September 2025, a software flaw in 40 Starlink satellites caused their uncontrolled descent toward Earth’s atmosphere, creating a rain of metal debris over the Pacific Ocean. The incident forced 180 other satellites to perform emergency maneuvers.
NASA currently records over 35,000 pieces of space debris larger than 10 centimeters in low Earth orbit. Each collision generates thousands of smaller fragments that persist for decades. The Kessler syndrome, where cascading collisions render an orbit unusable, directly threatens the most congested layers.
This saturation dynamic is self-reinforcing. The larger constellations grow, the more debris they generate and the more avoidance maneuvers they require. These maneuvers consume satellite fuel, reducing their operational lifespan and accelerating replacement. SpaceX now launches 100 new Starlink satellites per month to maintain its constellation.
Europe Seeks a Third Way Against the Sino-American Duopoly
Aware of its technological lag, Europe is developing a cooperative sovereignty strategy to counter Sino-American domination. The IRIS² program, launched in December 2024, aims to create a European multi-orbit system through a partnership between SES, Eutelsat, Hispasat, Airbus, and Thales Alenia Space.
Eutelsat is betting on OneWeb and partners like Airbus to offer a European alternative focused on intelligent satellite traffic management, ground station modularity, and active space debris reduction. This approach favors technical quality over sheer quantity, countering the escalation of mega-constellations.
The proposed EU Space Act of 2025 introduces notions of security, cybersecurity, and a “single space market,” marking a turning point toward autonomous European regulation. Sovereign models are also emerging with companies like AST SpaceMobile that design constellations intended for specific nations, allowing states to finance and control their own space infrastructure.
This geopolitical fragmentation of space reflects rising terrestrial tensions. Data sovereignty becomes a critical issue where civilians and military share the same orbits, forcing industrialists and governments to rethink their international cooperation strategies.
China Contests American Domination With Its Mega-Constellations
Beijing refuses to let Washington monopolize low Earth orbit and is accelerating the deployment of its own constellations. The Guowang project targets 13,000 satellites by 2030, directly inspired by the Starlink model but under state control.
At the Chengdu Space Conference in March 2025, China proposed an “Equitable Space Code of Conduct” to replace Western preeminence in orbital regulation, attempting to recentralize space governance in its image.
This Chinese strategy illustrates the implicit militarization of commercial space. Telecommunications satellites also serve territorial surveillance, electronic intelligence, and military positioning. The Chinese military already integrates civilian satellite data into its command systems, erasing the boundary between civil and military use.
China is simultaneously developing antisatellite capabilities to neutralize adversary constellations in case of conflict. In 2021, it tested a hypersonic missile capable of reaching low Earth orbit, confirming its capacity to destroy enemy satellites. This space arms race transforms civil constellations into potential military targets.
Russia attempts to restore its space autonomy with state-led programs but struggles to keep pace with this Sino-American escalation amid the collapse of its civil capacities following international sanctions. This relative Russian and European marginalization consolidates the Sino-American duopoly in low Earth orbit.
Secondary Actors Seek Specialization Niches
Facing domination by giants, middle powers develop niche strategies to preserve their space access. India, Brazil, and South Africa concentrate their efforts on specialized constellations rather than mass-market connectivity.
The Indian NavIC-2 program plans 18 navigation satellites, equivalent to a single Starlink launch. This asymmetry reflects the technological and financial gap between established space powers and other nations. SpaceX masters the reusability of its Falcon 9 rockets, reducing the cost of space access to $2,800 per kilogram. The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) charges $4,500 per kilogram for its launches, a structural handicap against American competition.
Industrial sovereignty is played out over materials, not just chips, and space is no exception. The rare earth metals necessary for satellites remain controlled by China, which produces 85% of global neodymium and 95% of terbium. This technological dependence constrains middle powers to negotiate their space access with their component suppliers.
Nigeria and Kenya are developing their first nanosatellites with budgets under $10 million, against the $10 billion SpaceX invested in Starlink. This disproportion condemns them to residual orbits, less effective for telecommunications and more exposed to space debris. But these national initiatives preserve autonomous capacity for territorial surveillance and emergency telecommunications.
The Urgency of International Space Governance
There is no single body capable of providing governments with global expertise for space policy decisions, a situation comparable to climate change research before the IPCC was created. Experts call for the creation of an Intergovernmental Panel on Space Sustainability (IPSS) to define scientific thresholds for orbital saturation.
The UN Office of Outer Space Affairs has proposed since 2023 a moratorium on new mega-constellations, but its recommendations remain non-binding. The United States and China reject any limitation of their satellite deployments, invoking their technological sovereignty.
The European Space Agency advocates for a system of orbital quotas distributed among nations according to their population and needs. This redistributive approach clashes with the fait accompli of already deployed constellations. Dismantling Starlink or Guowang appears technically and politically impossible.
Space insurers are raising the alarm about the financial risks of this saturation. Lloyd’s of London now refuses to insure satellites in low Earth orbit without automatic avoidance systems, increasing new mission costs by 40%. This increase primarily penalizes projects from less developed nations, already financially constrained.
The alternative consists in developing higher orbits, less congested but more expensive to access. Geostationary orbit, located 36,000 kilometers in altitude, still offers space but requires more powerful rockets and more sophisticated satellites. This solution mechanically advantages established space powers.
The privatization of low Earth orbit by technology giants creates a dangerous precedent for equitable access to space resources. Without binding regulation, the space near Earth becomes a territory reserved for first occupants, redefining geopolitical power relations far beyond the simple North-South divide.