Forty-eight percent of the world’s population depends on nitrogen fertilizers produced by the Haber-Bosch process, developed a century ago. This critical dependency transforms ammonia — the basis of all nitrogen fertilizers — into a geopolitical weapon. With prices soaring 50% in 2025 compared to 2024, the race for green ammonia is reshuffling a market dominated by Russia and China.
Decarbonizing this industry, responsible for 1.8% of global CO2 emissions, is no longer solely a climate issue. It redefines who feeds the planet and at what price. Green hydrogen opens a new geography of fertilizers, where the Gulf’s solar energy and Nordic wind challenge Russia’s natural gas reserves. This energy transition reveals the extent of global food vulnerabilities while creating new strategic dependencies.
The Essential Points
- 48% of the world’s population depends on nitrogen fertilizers for food, produced exclusively through the Haber-Bosch process
- Ammonia prices increased 50% between 2024 and 2025, directly weighing on global food costs
- Russia and China control 35% of global ammonia production, concentrating power over fertilizers
- Green ammonia projects reach 80 GW of planned capacity by 2030, creating a new energy geopolitics
Russia and China Control 35% of Global Fertilizers
Ammonia production draws a clear geopolitical map. Russia produces 13 million tons annually, China 46 million tons. Together, they represent 35% of global supply in a market of 185 million tons annually. This concentration exceeds that of petroleum and rivals that of rare earths.
The Haber-Bosch process, invented in 1909, remains unchanged: combine atmospheric nitrogen and hydrogen under high pressure and temperature to synthesize ammonia. Hydrogen comes 85% from natural gas reforming, directly linking this industry to fossil fuel reserves. Russia exploits this geological advantage with its 47,000 billion cubic meters of gas reserves, feeding its Acron and PhosAgro plants at unbeatable costs.
China adopts a different strategy. Beijing relies on coal for 60% of its ammonia production, transforming its 138 billion tons of coal reserves into fertilizer dominance. This approach generates three times more emissions than natural gas but guarantees energy independence. Sinofert and Yara China control flows to the Asia-Pacific region, which consumes 45% of global fertilizers.
Europe imports 70% of its ammonia needs, primarily from Russia via the Yamal and Nord Stream pipelines before 2022. Sanctions forced reorientation toward Algeria and Trinidad and Tobago, increasing transport costs and creating supply tensions. India, the world’s second-largest importer with 8.5 million tons annually, depends 40% on Russian exports despite Western pressure.
Green Hydrogen Transforms Ammonia into a Technological Race
Green ammonia projects reach 80 GW of electrolyzer capacity planned by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. This capacity equals 40 million tons of ammonia annually, or 22% of current production. The technology replaces natural gas reforming with water electrolysis powered by renewable energies, eliminating direct emissions.
The Middle East bets on solar advantage. Saudi Arabia is developing Neom, an industrial complex with 8.5 GW of electrolysis planned for 2030. Saudi solar electricity costs, down to 12 dollars per MWh, allow targeting green ammonia production costs at 400 dollars per ton, versus 600 dollars for conventional European ammonia in 2025.
Australia transforms its wind and solar potential into export infrastructure. The Asian Renewable Energy Hub project targets 15 GW of capacity to supply Asia with green ammonia via the Dampier port. Fortescue Metals is investing 6.2 billion dollars in this transformation, targeting Japanese and Korean needs estimated at 12 million tons of ammonia annually by 2030.
Norway exploits its excess hydroelectricity. Equinor and Yara are developing the Berlevåg plant, Europe’s first commercial green ammonia installation with a capacity of 500,000 tons annually. The project benefits from stable electricity costs at 35 euros per MWh, creating a durable competitive advantage against fluctuations in Russian gas.
Germany is investing in industrial reconversion. BASF is transforming its Ludwigshafen complex to integrate green ammonia into its chemical production chain. The company targets an 80% emissions reduction by 2030, anticipating stricter European regulation on carbon-based fertilizers.
Emerging Africa Exploits Massive Renewable Resources
North Africa is developing an export strategy centered on green ammonia. Morocco is launching the Noor Ouarzazate Solar Complex project, expanded to supply ammonia production destined for Europe. With 3,000 hours of annual sunshine and land costs of 50 dollars per hectare, the kingdom targets 3 million tons of green ammonia production by 2035.
Egypt is transforming Suez into an energy hub. The Cairo government is developing an industrial zone of 10,000 hectares powered by 20 GW of renewable energies, targeting European and Asian markets. The geographic position allows reducing maritime transport costs by 30% compared to Australian exports to Europe.
South Africa is betting on onshore wind. Sasol, the local petrochemical giant, is converting its Secunda facilities to integrate green ammonia into production. The project exploits the winds of the Cape wind corridor, where capacity factors exceed 45%, rivaling Europe’s best offshore installations.
This African emergence redistributes commercial flows. Europe, currently importing 85% of its fertilizers from Russia and Belarus, can diversify toward geographically closer African partners. Transport costs from Morocco to Rotterdam stand at 45 dollars per ton, versus 120 dollars from Australia.
However, limited infrastructure constrains this scaling up. Sub-Saharan Africa lacks harbor capacities adapted to ammonia cargo ships and stable electrical networks to power electrolyzers. The World Bank estimates 180 billion dollars in necessary investments to develop continental energy infrastructure by 2030.
Energy Costs Determine the New Global Map
Green ammonia production consumes 28 MWh of electricity per ton, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency. This energy intensity transforms electricity costs into a determining geopolitical factor. Regions with renewable electricity below 30 dollars per MWh can compete with conventional ammonia starting in 2027.
Chile develops the Atacama Desert’s solar advantage. With photovoltaic costs down to 15 dollars per MWh, the country targets green ammonia production at 350 dollars per ton by 2030. The Haru Oni project by Porsche and Siemens Energy prefigures this strategy, targeting exports to Germany and Japan.
China adapts its strategy by developing electrolysis powered by its installed 310 GW of solar capacity. Sinopec is investing 4.6 billion dollars in green ammonia plants in Xinjiang, exploiting 3,500 annual sunshine hours. This energy transition reduces coal dependency while maintaining export dominance.
Iceland exploits abundant geothermal energy. Reykjavik Energy is developing a green ammonia complex powered by 85% geothermal energy, targeting European supply. Stable electricity costs at 25 dollars per MWh create a durable competitive advantage, independent of weather fluctuations.
The United States is betting on Midwest onshore wind. CF Industries is converting its Donaldsonville plant in Louisiana to integrate 50% green ammonia by 2030. The project exploits wind capacity factors exceeding 50% in Texas and Oklahoma, where AI breaks fifteen years of energy efficiency but paradoxically frees new renewable capacity.
This race for costs reveals the winners and losers of the transition. Russia, handicapped by electricity costs of 45 dollars per MWh and sanctions limiting access to electrolyzer technologies, is progressively losing its gas advantage. China maintains its position by combining conventional and green production depending on regions.
Global Food Security Caught Between Transition and Dependency
Global agriculture depends 48% on synthetic fertilizers to maintain yields feeding 3.8 billion people. This critical dependency transforms each disruption in the ammonia market into a direct food threat. India, feeding 1.4 billion people, imports 8.5 million tons of ammonia annually, primarily from Russia and Qatar.
The transition to green ammonia creates temporary vulnerabilities. Existing conventional ammonia installations represent 300 billion dollars in stranded assets, according to McKinsey. Their conversion or replacement stretches over 15 to 20 years, a period during which prices will remain volatile. Europe, progressively closing its ammonia plants using Russian gas, risks temporary shortages before green capacities ramp up.
Sub-Saharan Africa suffers the most severe effects of this transition. The continent consumes only 3% of global fertilizers despite 60% of unexploited arable land, according to the FAO. Ammonia price increases further reduce access to agricultural inputs, keeping cereal yields at 1.3 tons per hectare versus 3.4 tons global average.
Island nations develop specific adaptation strategies. Japan, devoid of fossil resources, is investing 12 billion dollars in green ammonia imports to replace Russian imports. Tokyo is securing supplies through long-term contracts with Australia and Saudi Arabia, accepting 40% surcharges to guarantee continuity.
However, this transition also opens rebalancing opportunities. Green ammonia, produced locally via renewable energies, can reduce import dependency. India is developing 5 GW of electrolyzer capacity to produce 2.5 million tons of green ammonia by 2030, decreasing its imports by 30%. This strategy copies the Chinese model of energy self-sufficiency adapted to fertilizers.
Food geopolitics grows more complex with the emergence of new actors. Australia, traditionally an exporter of coal to Asia, is developing green ammonia exports to maintain its energy revenues. This transformation illustrates how decarbonization redistributes geoeconomic roles without eliminating interdependencies.
Massive Investments Reshape Global Supply Chains
Investments in green ammonia reach 85 billion dollars in announced projects by 2030, according to the Hydrogen Council. This capital mobilization exceeds that of the photovoltaic solar industry between 2010 and 2015, suggesting rapid sector transformation. Saudi Arabia concentrates 22% of these investments through its sovereign fund PIF, injecting 19 billion dollars into Neom.
The European Union activates its REPowerEU plan to reduce dependency on Russian fertilizers. Brussels mobilizes 45 billion euros by 2030 to develop 40 GW of electrolyzer capacity, with 30% dedicated to green ammonia. This strategy targets 70% self-sufficiency in fertilizers by 2035, reversing fifty years of external energy dependency.
China adapts its Belt and Road Initiative to include green ammonia. Beijing finances electrolysis plants in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, securing Central Asia’s ammonia supply while exporting its renewable energy technologies. These investments total 8 billion dollars over five years, creating a new Chinese energy sphere of influence.
Private companies restructure their global chains. Yara, Norwegian fertilizer leader, is investing 3.5 billion dollars to convert 30% of its production to green ammonia by 2030. The company relocates production to regions with abundant renewable energies, closing European natural gas plants to open Australian and Chilean facilities.
This industrial reconfiguration alters commercial flows. Green ammonia, more expensive to transport than conventional ammonia due to purity constraints, favors regional production. Asia-Pacific develops an integrated ecosystem around Australia and Japan, reducing dependency on Russian and Middle Eastern exports.
The costs of this transition remain considerable. The International Energy Agency estimates the cost parity between green and conventional ammonia will be reached only in 2030-2032, depending on regions. Meanwhile, 30 to 50% surcharges weigh on global food prices, particularly in countries that are net fertilizer importers like Egypt and Bangladesh.
Green ammonia transforms a century-old market dominated by fossil fuels into a technological race for renewable energies. This energy mutation redistributes geopolitical cards, creating new power centers in the Middle East and Oceania while weakening Russian and Chinese dominance. However, the transition stretches over two decades, a period during which global food security remains vulnerable to energy volatility. The question is no longer whether green ammonia will replace the conventional process, but which countries will control this new geography of fertilizers and at what price for global food supplies.